Texas Rainmaker

Today’s “if the election were held today, Democrats would win” story is brought to you by the AP:

The AP-Ipsos survey asked 789 registered voters if the election for the House were held today, would they vote for the Democratic or Republican candidate in their district. Democrats were favored 51 percent to 40 percent.

It’s just become so transparent. When things start looking positive for Republicans, roll out the “if the election were held today” bogus poll based on a room full of mostly liberals and proclaim an end to the positive news.

The bogus poll is also based on 789 registered voters. 789! Basically, the results of this poll tell us that 402 registered voters somewhere in America would vote for Democrats today.

Sweetness & Light shows us that Ipsos skewed this poll like all of their other polls:

Ipsos was apparently doing some “fuzzy” math, but the total number of Republicans (if you add the 17 and 25) was 42, not 41.

Thus, the result of this poll is that they oversampled Democrats by 11% and the margin of preference for a Democrat Congress is…. wait for it…. are you ready…. 11%!

*****
Update: Thanks to commenter Patrick who brought my attention to the sampling data. The S&L question cited was a follow up to the party affiliation question and thus the sampling was actually:

Republican ………………………………… 28
Democrat…………………………………… 33
Independent ………………………………. 27
None of these…………………………….. 12
Not sure…………………………………… -

Still an oversample of Democrats, as usual. Not as high as originally thought, but an oversample, nonetheless. In addition, one has to wonder how many of the 27% Independent previously identified themselves with one of the two parties.

The follow up question then, shows that the two major parties only see a “strong” following by 17% and 21%, respectively. The move to the middle, or possible third party ground is rather significant - 62%. Something I addressed last month.
*****

I’m sure come the first Wednesday after the first Monday in November, we’ll be reading how shocked, shocked, the MSM is that Republicans have maintained control of (or even gained seats in) both Houses.

Joseph Goebbels may be dead, but his spirit lives on in the MSM.

Others:
Betsy found some more anomalies in the poll.

Posted by TexasRainmaker |
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