Today’s “if the election were held today, Democrats would win” story is brought to you by the AP:

The AP-Ipsos survey asked 789 registered voters if the election for the House were held today, would they vote for the Democratic or Republican candidate in their district. Democrats were favored 51 percent to 40 percent.

It’s just become so transparent. When things start looking positive for Republicans, roll out the “if the election were held today” bogus poll based on a room full of mostly liberals and proclaim an end to the positive news.

The bogus poll is also based on 789 registered voters. 789! Basically, the results of this poll tell us that 402 registered voters somewhere in America would vote for Democrats today.

Sweetness & Light shows us that Ipsos skewed this poll like all of their other polls:

Ipsos was apparently doing some “fuzzy” math, but the total number of Republicans (if you add the 17 and 25) was 42, not 41.

Thus, the result of this poll is that they oversampled Democrats by 11% and the margin of preference for a Democrat Congress is…. wait for it…. are you ready…. 11%!

*****
Update: Thanks to commenter Patrick who brought my attention to the sampling data. The S&L question cited was a follow up to the party affiliation question and thus the sampling was actually:

Republican ………………………………… 28
Democrat…………………………………… 33
Independent ………………………………. 27
None of these…………………………….. 12
Not sure…………………………………… -

Still an oversample of Democrats, as usual. Not as high as originally thought, but an oversample, nonetheless. In addition, one has to wonder how many of the 27% Independent previously identified themselves with one of the two parties.

The follow up question then, shows that the two major parties only see a “strong” following by 17% and 21%, respectively. The move to the middle, or possible third party ground is rather significant - 62%. Something I addressed last month.
*****

I’m sure come the first Wednesday after the first Monday in November, we’ll be reading how shocked, shocked, the MSM is that Republicans have maintained control of (or even gained seats in) both Houses.

Joseph Goebbels may be dead, but his spirit lives on in the MSM.

Others:
Betsy found some more anomalies in the poll.

1. It was Joseph Goebbels who taught Hilter; if you say something loud enough and long enough, sooner or later people will begin to believe it, even if it is a lie. The DNC has take Goebell’s teachings to a new height.

   Comment by Old Soldier — 2:30 pm
   

2. Did that poll hurt your feelings?

   Apparently the President is more of a Hermann Goering aficionado:

   “Of course the people don’t want war. But after all, it’s the leaders of the country who determine the policy, and it’s always a simple matter to drag the people along whether it’s a democracy, a fascist dictatorship, or a parliament, or a communist dictatorship. Voice or no voice, the people can always be brought to the bidding of the leaders. That is easy. All you have to do is tell them they are being attacked, and denounce the pacifists for lack of patriotism, and exposing the country to greater danger.”

   Comment by Constantine — 7:33 pm
   

3. The only thing you can say that should follow if the election were held tomorrow with is people would be very surprised.

   Comment by Steph — 12:17 am
   

4. Did that poll hurt your feelings?

   I don’t know what’s funnier… how incredibly ironic Soldier’s statement is, or the fact that you guys have no clue why it’s ironic. The Bush Administration has told some of the most heinous lies of any presidency ever! Lies that have resulted in tens of thousands of deaths!

   Bush is more of a Hermann Goering aficionado, I think:

   “Of course the people don’t want war. But after all, it’s the leaders of the country who determine the policy, and it’s always a simple matter to drag the people along whether it’s a democracy, a fascist dictatorship, or a parliament, or a communist dictatorship. Voice or no voice, the people can always be brought to the bidding of the leaders. That is easy. All you have to do is tell them they are being attacked, and denounce the pacifists for lack of patriotism, and exposing the country to greater danger.”

   As far as the November elections, how’d you like to wager on the results? Are you so confident you’ll put your money where your mouth is?

   Comment by Constantine — 12:22 am
   

5. I like how you’re using the data that makes the poll look skewed. The question before asks what party people identified with, and the breakup was 28% Republican, 33% Democratic, 27% Independent and 12% other. A 5% difference. You say they over sampled democrats, well they did but not by the margins you show. The table you provide asked people which way they lean, and no surprise, the margin of which way people lean is the same as which way they plan on voting. You’re exaggerating the skew to prove your own point, you are no better than the pollsters and the MSM you vilify.

   [Editor’s Note: Thanks, Patrick. Post has been updated]

   Comment by Patrick — 12:47 am
   

6. “Did that poll hurt your feelings?”

   Of course not, because I live in reality. The reality where the economy is actually doing well, where terrorism on our soil isn’t considered to be an ‘inside job’ and where Republicans keep winning elections.

   But you keep enjoying whatever parallel universe you’re living in.

   Comment by Texas Rainmaker — 6:58 am
   

7. Given how one-sided the MSM propaganda has been, the only surprising thing about all the polls is how close they are. Every election cycle, the GOP waits til the fall election season to start correcting the lies told by the news media. Every election season, the introduction of a little balance to the voters’ understanding of the facts causes the GOP fortunes to rise.

   If polls (even fair ones) can only measure what voters think based on the facts that have been presented, those polls taken today have no possible chance of predicting the election. The actual voting depends on a different set of facts.

   1) Biased polls, of 2) voters who have not yet been afforded a chance to hear both sides of the stories are doubly worthless.

   Comment by stan — 9:55 pm
   

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