Comments on: George Bush Has Personally Killed One Trillion Innocent Civilians

by: Texas Rainmaker » Lancet Study Was a Fraud

Mon, 05 Mar 2007 15:03:24 +0000

[…] Remember the study that found George Bush has personally killed one trillion innocent civilians in Iraq? (Okay, it was only 600,000, but don’t think they would’ve said one trillion if they thought they could get away with it.) […]

by: My Own Thoughts » 600,000 is so wrong

Sat, 14 Oct 2006 01:21:40 +0000

[…] Texas Rainmaker is a little het up. He lets us know that one of the researchers ran for Congress this year as a Democrat. He also points out that males 15-44 are 59% of the results. (Jihadists?) […]

by: Tom

Sat, 14 Oct 2006 00:13:06 +0000

40 months. 600,000+ dead. That’s over 15,000 per month. Didn’t I just read that in September the death rate rose to its highest in a year at 1,600? Might the ‘researchers’ have found an extra zero somewhere?

by: BKJ

Thu, 12 Oct 2006 21:03:23 +0000

So, all the links I have read, including the ’similar research algorithms’ link are just opinion pieces.

I have yet to find anything actually criticizing the science, just the results.

I work in the sciences, and regularly work with statisticians and biometricians and know that there is danger in statistics.

The first being that people want an exact number, well ALL statistics, including censuses, have margins of error. In fact, when a poll says +/- 4% I want to know their confidence intervals. Meaning, how sure are they that the +/- 4% is accurate?

The next problem with statistics, is that people say, “See! Studies show it.” Without really understanding what the study says.

Finally, people don’t believe studies that show something different from what they want to believe.

As far as I can tell, this study needs to be peer reviewed, not by bloggers, pundits, or politicians, but by responsible scientists.

Until then, both sides are wrong in quoting it as fact or lie.

by: The Press and Liberal Politics Co-Dependent Relationship « Obi’s Sister

Thu, 12 Oct 2006 13:06:36 +0000

[…] LGF has additional links to prior publishing by The Lancet. Allahpundit asks “Where are all those bodies?” Texas Rainmaker explores the Democratic shadows behind it all. It’s all Bush’s fault. Yeah. With tongue planted firmly in cheek, Disturbingly Yellow uses similar research algorithms to find that 600K WMD have been found in Iraq! Stop the presses! Unbelievable. […]

by: endorendil

Thu, 12 Oct 2006 12:28:27 +0000

Hi BKJ, there have been a few guys with knowledge of statistics that have criticised the study, but with little effect. The basic methodology is sound and accepted for similar situations. That said, no one has been able to verify that this methodology applies on a battlefield (and no one ever will - it requires a better alternative, which isn’t available). In particular, cluster sampling is known to be less accurate in cases where the effect to be studied is small, but it will tend to underestimate the effect, not overestimate it.

Aside from these ill-informed questions on methodology, there isn’t much else that is questioned. There can be deception from the interviewees, but that was countered by asking for death certificates from a fraction of them, and they were generally produced. The study cannot count deaths of entire households, which is a common effect of night-time aerial bombardment as well as ethnic strife, so it is possible that it underestimates the deaths again. Incidentally, the interviewers did find one such case, but excluded it from the analysis as it didn’t fit the methodology.

The new data confirms the earlier report, BTW, although it didn’t reuse the data. The trends they find in the mortality are very similar to that obtained by all other sources.

The IBC number is currently around 45,000. That’s only civilians, as reported in at least two independent (english-speaking) news organisations. It’s inconceivable that this would be even close to the actual count, and IBC does not claim that it is, it just tries to put an absolute bottom on the number of civilians killed. Note that casualties among the Iraqi police and army aren’t included in the count either.

by: appletree » Blog Archive » Wingnuts Attempt to Debunk Iraq Deaths Survey

Thu, 12 Oct 2006 04:01:22 +0000

[…] Texas Rainmaker […]

by: Never Yet Melted » That Lancet Study

Thu, 12 Oct 2006 03:33:33 +0000

[…] Texas Rainmaker […]

by: BKJ

Wed, 11 Oct 2006 21:52:42 +0000

Please don’t scream at me….just curious.

The lancet is a science journal, I keep reading that their estimates are debunked, and their methods are faulty, but I have yet to see something other than an op-ed piece?

Has anyone qualified, a statistician, not a politician published an article in a scientific journal debunking their methods?

If so, where? Are there links?

by: Warren

Wed, 11 Oct 2006 21:26:13 +0000

The Lancet isn’t claiming that the US military killed all those people, but that George W Bush’s policies led to their deaths.

Nevertheless, it’ll take more than a month to scope this out and by then the US election will be over. That’s their plan.