The headline:

CNN Poll: Double-digit post-speech jump for Obama plan

The lede:

Two out of three Americans who watched President Barack Obama’s health care reform speech Wednesday night favor his health care plans — a 14-point gain among speech-watchers, according to a CNN/Opinion Research Corporation national poll of people who tuned into Obama’s address Wednesday night to a joint session of Congress.

At this point, most people stop reading and move on to the next article. But for those who stick around to see the details behind the claim see this:

The sample of speech-watchers in this poll was 45 percent Democratic and 18 percent Republican.

A 27-point gap between party affiliations and only a 14-point gain. Seems like a potentially different claim than “double-digit post-speech jump for Obama plan”.

In fact, CNN even admits, although buried in the last line of the article, that they oversampled Democrats by a double-digit margin:

Our best estimate of the number of Democrats in the voting age population as a whole indicates that the sample is about 8-10 points more Democratic than the population as a whole.

Rinse, repeat.

UPDATE: Upon further evaluation, the details of the recent poll show an even worse trend for Obama.

Question 1. What was your overall reaction to President Obama’s speech tonight – very positive, somewhat positive, somewhat negative or very negative?

Somewhat or very positive: 77%
Somewhat or very negative: 21%

But…. they offer a comparison of the results from Obama’s State of the Union in February.

Somewhat or very positive: 92%
Somewhat or very negative: 8%

The takeaway from this comparison is that despite oversampling Democrats by a double-digit margin in last night’s poll, there was a 15% decline in those who reacted positively and a 13% increase in those who reacted negatively to Obama’s speech.

Question 2. Do you think the policies being proposed by Barack Obama will move the country in the right direction or the wrong direction?

Pre-speech
Right Direction: 60%
Wrong Direction: 35%

Post-speech
Right Direction: 70%
Wrong Direction: 27%

A 10% increase in “right direction” responses in a pool that CNN admits is “is about 8-10 points more Democratic than the population as a whole” isn’t all that stellar. But look what story emerges when comparing these results with those of his prior address to Congress…

Pre-speech
Right Direction: 71%
Wrong Direction: 26%

Post-speech
Right Direction: 88%
Wrong Direction: 11%

After his State of the Union, the 88% of respondents thought Obama’s policies will move the country in the right direction, but that support had dropped 28% to 60% just before last night’s speech… and only bounced back to 70% afterward… even when CNN oversampled Democrats by 27 points. A little different story than what CNN touts in the headlines and lede paragraph.

To add another dimension to Obama’s dismal performance, compare his numbers (even with the flawed sampling) with those of Bill Clinton’s in 1993 just before HillaryCare laid the foundation for the Republican Revolution:

Obama’s Healthcare Reform Plan (2009):
Support - 67%
Oppose - 29%

Clinton’s Healthcare Reform Plan (1993):
Support - 67%
Oppose - 17%

The support appears to remain stagnant (though the numbers are still questionable in light of other polling on the subject)… but the opposition is almost 60% higher this time around.

There’s your story, CNN. I dare you to report the facts.