Texas Rainmaker
The Race to Zero
March 14th, 2009 1:48 pm

Which will hit rock bottom first? The stock market or…

Obama’s approval rating?

Polling data show that Mr. Obama’s approval rating is dropping and is below where George W. Bush was in an analogous period in 2001.

Ouch. That’s gonna leave a mark.

Rasmussen Reports data shows that Mr. Obama’s net presidential approval rating — which is calculated by subtracting the number who strongly disapprove from the number who strongly approve — is just six, his lowest rating to date.

Six. I think a corpse sitting in the Oval Office could’ve registered better than a six. If only we’d seen this coming. [/sarcasm]

Overall, Rasmussen Reports shows a 56%-43% approval, with a third strongly disapproving of the president’s performance. This is a substantial degree of polarization so early in the administration. Mr. Obama has lost virtually all of his Republican support and a good part of his Independent support, and the trend is decidedly negative.

We. Told. You. So.

Posted by TexasRainmaker | (0) Comments
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And then feed the results to outlets like AFP

Nearly half of the US public wants President George W. Bush to face impeachment

Nice lede, especially considering the number opposed to impeachment is higher.

The survey by the American Research Group found that 45 percent support the US House of Representatives beginning impeachment proceedings against Bush, with 46 percent opposed, and a 54-40 split in favor when it comes to Cheney.

Conveniently, the article fails to mention the sample breakdown of the poll. For your enjoyment, here it is:

Democrats (38%)
Republicans (29%)
Independents (33%)

Now it makes sense.

Posted by TexasRainmaker | (20) Comments
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The Home Stretch
November 6th, 2006 1:18 pm

Given that interest has peaked in these mid-term elections, I thought I’d conduct my own unscientific exit polling on this site to get an idea of what party turnout looks like for TexasRainmaker.com readers.

What is your party affiliation and have you/do you plan to vote?


  
Free polls from Pollhost.com

CORRECTION:
Thanks to resident liberal, Forrest, for catching my mistake. In my fast and furious cut ‘n paste job, I inadvertently had two identical selections (”Democrat - Will vote/did vote for Republican”) in the poll. Obviously, one was supposed to be “Democrat - Will vote/did vote for Democrat”. I have made the change to the drop-down selection, but the polling site won’t let me alter the results page. Therefore, the “Democrat - Will vote/did vote for Democrat” votes will show up under the second “Democrat - Will vote/did vote for Republican” item when you view the results.

Sorry about the confusion. But what the hell, I said it was unscientific, didn’t I?

Posted by TexasRainmaker | (3) Comments
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Karl Rove, You Magnificent Bastard
October 26th, 2006 7:58 pm

Liberals are so fond of polls, are they? Well stick this CNN Poll in your pipe and smoke it:

Most Americans do not believe the Bush administration has gone too far in restricting civil liberties as part of the war on terror, a new CNN poll released Thursday suggests.

While 39 percent of the 1,013 poll respondents said the Bush administration has gone too far, 34 percent said they believe the administration has been about right on the restrictions, according to the Opinion Research Corp. survey. Another 25 percent said the administration has not gone far enough.

That’s 59% that say the administration has not gone too far in restricting civil liberties, despite all the pissing and moaning from the Bush-haters on the Left.

But maybe it’s about abuse of power, right? Wrong.

Asked whether Bush has more power than any other U.S. president, 65 percent of poll respondents said no. Thirty-three percent said yes. Of those who said yes, a quarter said that was bad for the country.

Then there’s the al-Reuters poll asking which party respondents think would do better at stopping nuclear proliferation…

Given that there’s only about 1/3 of the public, according to these polls, that believes the Bush administration is abusing powers, destroying civil liberties and screwing up national defense in the war on terror, I hope Democrats keep putting this issue at the forefront of the campaign. It’s not an issue on which Democrats will win.

Posted by TexasRainmaker | (3) Comments
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Let’s review the most recent bogus MSM poll of 1,010 people with nothing better to do than site around responding to intrusive telemarketers… which as Mark accurately describes as:

…a completely useless poll of 1,010 adults (not “registered voters” and not “likely voters” - “adults”…meaning that some large percentage of the sample are people who get their views from daytime television and wouldn’t show up to vote if you put a gun to their head).

NBC/WSJ does a good job of co-mingling disgust with the liberalism that infects our society with the rabid anti-American and anti-Bush sentiment of the Left to create the appearance that all the world is angry with President Bush. In fact, they even include a David Gregory report near the top of the article about the poll entitled, “Poll shows anger at Bush administration”. Not that we even need a poll to tell us there are people “angry with Bush”. They were angry with him for just… winning. Twice!

But let’s analyze this poll…

America’s direction

Do you think the nation is?
………………………………………………..7/06…..6/06
Headed in the right direction……………….27……..27
Off on the wrong track………………………60……..61
Mixed…………………………………………..11……..10
Not sure………………………………………..2……….2

Now the appropriate follow up question - which is never asked - is… “Why?”

The reason it’s not asked is because the answer likely doesn’t revolve around the MSM-hopeful answer of “that rotten George Bush”, but rather around a host of issues that likely includes the increasing protection for criminals, illegals and terrorists or the fact that God is being removed from every corner of our country by a radical Left that doesn’t understand the founding of this country. Or maybe it’s because our educational system has evolved into an institution of liberal doctrination. Or it could be because we have an institutional mainstream media that’s fond of aiding and abetting our enemies. Maybe it’s not just that Bush is a “cowboy”.

Evidence of my suspicions comes in the response to the next question in the poll:

Short or long-term?

Does the nation’s direction feels more like a short-term blip or a longer-term decline
Short-term blip…………….12
Longer-term decline……….81
Not sure………………………7

The respondents indicate that their feelings towards America’s “decline” has been a long time in the making. It’s not just a magical feeling that has arisen since George W. Bush moved into 1600 Pennsylvannia.

Then the poll ties the above questions directly into some follow up questions about perceptions on Bush’s performance. This wraps the first responses neatly into the pre-defined template that makes the story worthy of MSM publication.

But then look at the next question:

Federal priority

Which one of these items you think should be the top priority for the federal government.
………………………………………………..7/06…….6/06
The war in Iraq……………………………….29……….22
Terrorism………………………………………14……….11
Job creation and economic growth…………12……….13
Energy and the cost of gas………………….11……….11
Health care…………………………………….11……….14
Illegal immigration……………………………..9………..14
Reducing the federal budget deficit…………5…………7
Environment…………………………………….4…………-
Iran’s nuclear program ……………………….-………….4
Other…………………………………………….1…………1
All equally……………………………………….4…………3

Forty-three percent say the federal focus should be on the war against terrorists. Despite any claims Howard Dean tries to make, this is the GOP’s strong issue. If you doubt that, take a look back at what happened in the Presidential election of 2004… an election billed by the anti-war Left as a referendum on the man who has led us into the wars. And he received more votes than any President in the history of our country.

But also look at the question on the importance of focusing on Iran’s nuclear program. It’s zero. And the question relating to “Bush’s handling of the situation in Iran” is the only question in the section where his approval rating is below his disapproval rating. So basically he’s losing in the minds of 1,010 adults on the one issue they care nothing about anyway.

Then the question on our children’s future:

Our children’s generation
Do you feel confident life for our children’s generation will be better than it has been for us?
…………………………………………………7/06……….12/01
Feel confident………………………………….27………….49
Do not feel confident………………………….65………….42
Not sure………………………………………….8…………..9

I could fall into the “do not feel confident” category with the caveat that it’s based on whether we continue to take this war against radical islam seriously, or whether we continue to have leaders willing to forego political correctness and transparent niceties for tough action against evil in the world.

The remaining questions deal with the islamonutjobs in the middle east that are causing all the strife and stress to normal, civilized human beings in the region. Whether we are committed to sending each and every one of those radical islamonutjobs to meet allah is paramount in understanding the responses of those final poll questions.

If we decide that a bunch of whiny-ass liberals dancing around in birkenstocks at the ACLU headquarters or the elitists who reduce their condescending, national secret-revealing, anti-American rhetoric to the pages of our major media outlets and the halls of our educational institutions should lead this country, then you can guarantee this place is headed in the wrong direction. And it has nothing to do with the man in the White House.

Posted by TexasRainmaker | (2) Comments
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Testing the theory that if you repeat something often enough, it’s bound to become true, AP writer Will Lester offers up another edition in his Cell Phone/Political Polling anthology. This time, he finally tells readers what he’s been dying to say since the first article… that polls are being tilted in favor of conservatives, because cell phone users who are out of reach of pollsters are generally more liberal. Got to give the guy credit, he’s been working on this angle, repeating this same story, for several years now… and he’s finally delivered the dramatic climax.

Cell-Phone-Only Crowd May Alter Polling

Currently, 7.8 percent of adults live in households that have only a cell phone, according to research released Friday by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s National Center for Health Statistics. And that group is growing at about 1 percentage point every six months.

Those who only have cell phones are significantly different in many ways — typically younger, less affluent, more likely to be single, and more liberal on many political issues — from those who can be reached by landline, an AP-AOL-Pew survey finds.

So does this mean that conservatives should be fearful that the liberal-leaning polls we’re being inundated with by MSM aren’t representing enough liberal data?

Blending the opinions of cell-only respondents into a poll of all adults changed the findings on various political questions in the AP-AOL-Pew survey by 1 percentage point at the most.

Guess not. But Lester has been repeating this exact same story for almost 2 years now. Although, this was the first time he decided to announce the mystery cell phoners are not just poor college non-voters, but suddenly they’re a bunch of liberal voters… (afterall, reliance on polls worked so well for the Left in 2004) But these newly liberal voters weren’t so political in the last few renditions of this story:

October 12, 2004: Cell phone users not in election polls (Will Lester, AP) - “Many cell-only users are young and mobile, a demographic that often doesn’t vote.”

February 26, 2005: ‘Cell phone only’ crowd stymies polls (Will Lester, AP) - “They’re mainly young, single and urban. They move frequently, usually renting rather than owning their homes.”

May 16, 2005: Pollsters Eye Cell Phones (Will Lester, AP) - “[T]he number of people using only cell phones was growing faster among several groups - including young adults, those people living with unrelated roommates and those people living alone.”

It looks like Lester may have gotten his inspiration from another article written back in December, 2003:

Cell phones put pollsters ‘in a muddle’
Exclusion of a particular socioeconomic, political, racial, geographic or other group can skew poll results, because a reliable poll must draw responses at random from as wide a field as possible.

Polling experts agree that the problem is minimal for now, but they have varying takes on how serious it may become.

Seems Lester is a fan of cloning articles.

Posted by TexasRainmaker | (6) Comments
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Is It the Economy, Stupid?
April 21st, 2006 12:49 pm

What do you think?

How do you feel about the economy today?


  

Just thought I’d check the pulse of TexasRainmaker visitors.

Posted by TexasRainmaker | (1) Comment
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It’s Republicans’ Game to Lose
April 15th, 2006 8:58 am

I’m no big fan of polls, but as I’ve been browsing through some polls relating to some top issues, I’ve noticed an interesting trend. It seems that based on the following numbers, if Republicans fell back on their true, conservative values, there shouldn’t be any worry of losing in the Fall.

On Taxes:

Poll: Most Americans Say Tax System Unjust

Almost as certain as death and taxes is the public’s feeling that the U.S. income tax system is not fair. An Ipsos Poll released this week found almost six of 10 people, 58 percent, say the system is unjust, a number that is virtually unchanged from two decades ago.

People think the middle class, the self-employed and small businesses pay too much in taxes, the poll found. And they think those with high incomes and big businesses don’t pay enough. The survey was conducted in the days before the mid-April deadline for filing income tax returns.

Introduce a fair, flat or consumption tax, and you take the class warfare issue off the table. But Democrats know that a simple and fair tax system doesn’t allow them to “buy” votes with promises to the poor at the expense of the “evil rich”.

On Religion:

God is Alive and Well in America

Recent polling by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press and the Pew Forum on Religion & Public Life found that 96% of the public says they believe in God or some form of Supreme Being

This is probably why issues like abortion, gay marriage and the like are big losers for the Left. While they may be more vocal, and have the aid of MSM (for now)on their side, there just aren’t that many who agree with them as we’re made to think.

On Immigration:

Americans are increasingly concerned about immigration. A growing number believe that immigrants are a burden to the country, taking jobs and housing and creating strains on the health care system. Many people also worry about the cultural impact of the expanding number of newcomers.

Overall, 53% say people who are in the U.S. illegally should be required to go home….

Another potential winner for Republicans… if, and only if…. they return to their traditional, conservative roots. Overall, the disconent with the current Republicans in Washington is that they’ve begun to look too much like their opposition and there seems to be no difference between the parties. (I won’t even mention spending and government waste)

My advice to the Republicans - to guarantee electoral victory in 2006 and 2008….

START ACTING LIKE REPUBLICANS AGAIN!

Posted by TexasRainmaker | (9) Comments
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Democrats Get Paralysis of Analysis
February 28th, 2006 10:19 pm

Much is being made about the Zogby poll released today that allegedly shows a mutiny of the military in Iraq. Nicholas Kristof has a hard time containing his excitement in The New York Times:

A poll to be released today shows that U.S. soldiers overwhelmingly want out of Iraq - and soon.

Editor & Publisher then jumps on the bandwagon and trumpets Kristof’s declaration with the headline:

Kristof: Poll Finds U.S. Troops in Iraq Urge Pullout

Overwhelmingly want out soon? Urge pullout? Sounds like a pretty strong indictment on the Bush administration and the war in Iraq. But things may not actually be as they appear… or as Kristof and the Democrats want them to appear.In looking at the poll’s executive summary (yeah, I paid $19.99 for it on zogby’s site), the question and results are broken down as follows:

How long should U.S. troops stay in Iraq?

“They should withdraw immediately” - 29.0%

“They should withdraw within the next six months” - 22.4%

“They should withdraw within six to twelve months” - 20.6%

“They should stay as long as they are needed” - 22.9%

“Not sure” - 5.0%

While Kristof and the Democrats paint the picture that these numbers are evidence of a military ready to cut and run, they don’t take into account the fact that the Pentagon’s existing plan calls for troop reduction of almost half in the next 6 months and about 75% by the end of the year. So it’s reasonable to assume, since the responses are consistent with the existing troop reduction plan, that the respondents were taking this plan into account when answering the question. Hardly the bombshell the Left wanted to portray.

Why is it safe to assume this? The very next survey question sheds some light:

“According to recent polls, about half of Americans favor a rapid withdrawal and half favor an open-ended occupation of Iraq. Which do you believe best describes the motives of those favoring rapid withdrawal?”

36.9 percent said it was because “they are unpatriotic”. Unpatriotic! So if we’re to believe Kristof’s analysis, then over a third of our troops are “urging” something they believe is “unpatriotic”.

In fact, further down in Zogby’s report comes this little nugget:

A majority of troops (53%) said the U.S. should double both the number of troops and bombing missions in order to control the insurgency.

Wait… I thought the troops were “urging pullout”… So we’re to believe they are “urging pullout” and simultaneously want to double the number troops? What sense does that make?

This further supports my theory that the responses to the question about how long troops should stay in Iraq were based more on the actual military plans as than on the desire of a bunch of brave men and women crying to go home.

Another interesting tidbit we’re likely never to see in the MSM:

A large majority of the troops serving in Iraq said they were satisfied with the war provisions from Washington (adequate troop protection; body armor; Humvee plating, munitions).

In fact, only about 30% said their equipment is not adequate for the jobs facing them. So much for those media-planted mutinies.

Now that Kristof and the Old Gray Lady have given their marching orders, be prepared for the onslaught of coverage and endless analsysis by the rest of the MSM on this “bombshell poll”. I only hope I’m not the only one who spent 20 bucks to get the whole picture.

Update: This isn’t the first time the Left has tried to portray the military as opposed to Bush.

Update 2: I’ve been getting a lot of email (many asking why I’d waste $20 on a liberal poll - I reply, “I can afford it, I’m a Republican”) accusing me of “always attacking the polls because of who the pollsters are”. Just for clarification, this is actually one case where I don’t necessarily dispute the poll results themselves (even though John Zogby is an admitted Democrat), but rather the analysis of those results. And I do think the pollsters’ bias and/or agenda led them to their flawed conclusions.

Update 3: More details behind Zogby’s cohorts in this poll (and his alma mater), Le Moyne College’s Center for Peace and Global Studies.

Update 4 (03/02/06): Hugh Hewitt interviewed John Zogby today… at least until Zogby hung up on him.

I interviewed John Zogby about 1:00 Pacific today, but he hung up on me after objecting to my questions. Among the questions: Did he travel to Iraq to oversee the polling? (No.) Would he tell me who had overseen the polling? (Information International of Beirut.) Would he tell me who at Information International? (No.) What did he pay the survey takers? (He wouldn’t say). Had he been invited by the someone in the American military to brief on results? (Yes.) Who was that? (He wouldn’t say.) Why hadn’t he released the demographics? (He had, he said. I disagreed. He hung up.)

Update 5: Even more background info on “unbiased” Le Moyne College’s Center for Peace and Global Studies (hat tip: reader Jack):

Others:
Pamela takes a “critical” look at the pollster himself.Red State’s kingronjo, a member of Zogby’s polling panel takes a closer look at Zogby’s spam about this poll.

Mark reminds the world who these troops usually support.

Rusty looks at the strawman presented in this poll.

FacesFromTheFront examines who the interviewers were. (PS: Thank you for your service, guys)

Smash has two words for the pollsters.

 

Posted by TexasRainmaker | (3) Comments
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“If the Election Were Held Today”
February 26th, 2006 5:20 pm

Democrats love to pretend that polls matter more than actual elections. Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid said Friday that if midterm elections were held today “Democrats would win the five seats they need to draw even in the Senate…”

I can understand the wishful thinking, since the only time Democrats have been capable of securing control of the Senate in the last 10 years, it required a candidate disenfranchising voters by switching parties after being elected as a Republican.

Going back a few years, Democrats have clung to the hope that random polls throughout the year were indicative of actual election results. Maybe it’s that faulty reliance that gives rise to such shock, when their candidates go down in flames at the hands of voters, instead of “a representative sample teenagers at the grocery store” or “a statistical sampling of elderly Lakers fans”.

Over and over again, they build their dreams on the false hopes…

October 31, 2003 - “An independent poll released this week by the non-partisan William C. Velasquez Institute (WCVI) confirmed that Hispanics are growing increasingly frustrated with President Bush’s policies and performance. According to the Institute’s research, if the election were held today, any Democratic presidential candidate would beat Bush by a margin of almost two to one, or 55 percent to 28 percent.”

February 3, 2004 - “Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry would defeat President Bush if the election were held today, according to a USA TODAY/CNN/Gallup Poll that shows serious vulnerabilities for the president.”

February 18, 2004 - “US President George W. Bush would lose to either of the two leading Democratic presidential contenders, if elections were held today, according to a new public opinion poll.”

May 5, 2004 - “So, the bottom line is if the election were held today, Kerry would take 51% of the vote to Mr. Bush’s 36%.”

October 5, 2004 - “If the election were held today, John Kerry and George Bush would tie in Ohio, according to an exclusive WKYC-TV survey.”

And if building false hopes wasn’t enough for them, there’s this:

June 16, 2005 - “Here’s a poll whose results I’d love to know: a do-over of the presidential election, six months later.”

Unfortunately for Democrats our country is not governed by mid-year polls and media surveys. But I have no problem if they want to keep thinking they mean something.

Posted by TexasRainmaker | (0) Comments
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